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This Issue: The (GM) Empire Strikes Back: 2008 Chevrolet Malibu Go to entire analysis (pdf) Editor's note: eMOTION! REPORTS.com editors are convinced that Malibu will enable GM to create a significant sales buffer for the world's number one automaker, and thus preclude the possibility of Toyota claiming a position of ascendancy either globally or in the all important US market. And yes, we said all important US market. Industry observers should be aware that the presumed growth of the Chinese market will not meet glowing expectations for vehicle consumption... China's directive is to create an export oriented economy that will eclipse that of Japan. Press Release: November 15, 2007 U.S. -- China Commission Cites Some Progress Yet Some Troubling Trends For U.S. Economic and National Security Interests; Year-Long Study Offers 42 Recommendations In Report to Congress Full Report Available at: www.uscc.gov
"It is not a matter of if this country fights China, but when..." -- Internal U.S. Department of Defense analysis WASHINGTON, DC (November 15, 2007) – China has adopted policies to reverse its progress toward a more market-based economy, opting instead to increase government intervention in the economy, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. “Free and fair trade depends on a market approach to international commerce, rather than a contest among governments and their closely owned and subsidized industries,” said Carolyn Bartholomew, chairman of the Commission as she officially released the group’s 2007 annual report to Congress on Thursday.
The
Commission, a bipartisan group established by Congress to analyze the
economic and national security relationship of the two nations, made 42
recommendations to Congress for further action. The book-length report
was unanimously approved by the 12 Commissioners, appointed by each
party’s leadership. The Commission held seven hearings; travelled to
The report
acknowledges that
The report is
critical of
The report raises alarms about the the erosion of the Publisher's Note: Although the first flight has been delayed, ER will continue to follow and advise new dates
EVERETT, Wash., Dec. 11, 2007 -- The Boeing [NYSE: BA] production line is full for the all-new 787 Dreamliner, as work continues on the first flight-test airplane and two airplanes to be used for static and fatigue testing. This photo shows Airplane #1 in the third position, where final structure and systems installations are completed. Behind it, the static-test airplane is in the second position, where it will receive landing gear, engines, and any required interior installations. The fatigue airplane entered final body join Nov. 30. New Feature: Executive Summary
A bi-weekly in-depth technical analysis of worthy automobiles; November/December summary is Cadillac STS 3.6L Direct Injected V-6 http://www.cadillac.com/cadillacjsp/model/gallery.jsp?model=sts&year=2008 Publisher's note: 2008 Cadillac CTS repeats 2003/2004 nomination as eMOTION! REPORTS.com Car of The Year; Audi R8 Included In Special Performance Vehicle Category http://www.emotionreports.com/SUV_Award/suv_award.html The Penalty of Leadership: A Plaque download of what is considered some of the best automotive advertising prose of all time, and appearing as a one page Cadillac ad for one day in the January 2, 1915 Saturday Evening Post in response to Packard Automobile assertions http://www.emotionreports.com/SUV_Award/penalty_of_leadership.htm
Special
Report:
Automotive
Industry Analysis:
The
Chrysler Acquisition:
A Matter of Control
FRANKFURT MOTOR SHOW 2007 62nd Annual
DaimlerChrysler Archives
February 2001: Der Sturm (The Perfect Storm) Chrysler: Crafting A Reprieve 2.17.07
Our own sources have not dispelled the notion that the latter statement is true. In light of this current state of affairs, we invite you to consider analyses presented in February of 2001; Der Sturm (The Perfect Storm) and Chrysler: Crafting a Reprieve. Analyses just as relevant and accurate now as they were then. The repatriation of this American icon Chrysler, should be pursued by either Ford or GM with all due speed: It is an opportunity that would bring benefits to all concerned, in addition to playing its own role – as noted in “Crafting a Reprieve” – in mitigating erosion of the US industrial base. The foregoing is true for the simple reason that ownership of Chrysler by a US entity renders it far less likely that manufacturing positions would be sent offshore, and even if they are, the money still flows back here. Dr. Zetsche is one of the few automotive executives who understands how critical it is to maintain a country’s industrial base; even one not his own. Which is why we applaud his courage in potentially turning a financial difficulty for Daimler into a opportunity to right a perceived, if not quite real, wrong: The theft of Chrysler through the machinations of Juergen Schrempp and the short sightedness of an otherwise capable Bob Eaton. Lastly, you’ll note that we mentioned Ford Motor Company as a possible White Knight in the re-acquisition of Chrysler. This is not said tongue in cheek. Rather, it simply acknowledges that despite its current difficulties, the company will emerge viable. Moreover, it would reprise its role of 12 years ago during the tenure of Sir Alex Trotman when, unbeknownst to all but a critical few, Ford, at his direction, acted as a potential suitor to prevent Kirk Kerkorian’s hostile taking of Chrysler. Alan Mulally would do well to consider the benefits of a Chrysler rescue, benefits that would be identifiable at several levels. We do indeed live in a global environment, but succeeding in this arena demands maintaining the strength and solidity of the home base. In this vein, America’s biggest orphan at the moment, Chrysler Group, needs the nurturing atmosphere of a new home and new caring parents… eMOTION! REPORTS.com 2007
Special
Edition For University of Michigan
/Center For
Automotive Research
41st Annual
Management Briefing Seminars,
Traverse City,
Michigan August 7-11, 2006
Update, August 6, 2006 (July 3, 2006, May 5, 2005, analyses)Kerkorian and Renault-Nissan Overtures to GM Have Overtones of Hostile Takeover; Success Would Represent Clear Threat to Industrio-Economic Stability and Therefore National Security; Potential Emergence of New Global Automotive Industry Architecture
GM's
emergent show of strength, both financially and from a leadership
standpoint, is causing the Ghosn/Kerkorian camp to shift attention away
from GM and back to Ford.
A serious strategy has emerged to overcome the power of the Ford family's Class B Shares, making the potential for outright capture all the more real. Astoundingly, Daimler-Chrysler and Deutsche Bank are inevitably part of the Ghosn strategy for the Ford acquisition. The involvement of these two entities should be expected, however, for the simple reason this "organizational fusion" begins with Ford of Europe. And Europe is their home and backyard...
Go To Full PDF
SPECIAL REPORT:
28 April, 2006
State
of
Publisher's note: The US Auto Industry is out of time, and as we recently said to industry colleagues, the window for discussion of strategies to stay or mitigate the threat to the industrial base has been closed. Only the implementation of actionable plans remains; some of which are suggested by Dr. Ronis and her associates at the USBIC and those that will soon be before Congress subsequent to several month’s long investigation of the erosion of the manufacturing base. We also acknowledge the impending visit by the principals of GM, Ford and Chrysler with the President. In order to ensure the best outcome of those proposed interactions, the right questions -- even demands -- must be presented. And frankly, we have no confidence that most of the people employed and deployed by GM and Ford -- again, Chrysler is NOT an American car company -- on Capitol Hill understand or appreciate the reality of economic war being waged; an understanding quite necessary to craft the appropriate query. Moreover, the strategies and tactics utilized are designed not to render the offshores just hyper-competitive against the core components of the country's base, but to eliminate them. Cold, sad, true... In this analysis and advisory, a very necessary position is articulated and needs very little expansion as the following excerpt demonstrates:
"The automotive industry crisis is revealing
with a vengeance the dilemma faced by companies that wish to manufacture
in America and keep the nation's industrial base strong. On the one hand,
private business and market forces still make the
"On the other hand, policy decisions made in Washington and foreign capitals--to open or to ignore certain foreign markets, to combat or to tolerate foreign subsidies or dumping, to favor some sectors of the economy but not others in trade negotiations--can make or break not only individual companies but entire industries. "Multinational companies have long recognized the policy challenge, and have employed legions of lobbyists to influence national decision-makers. Yet too often, their foreign trade and investment agendas have harmed domestic companies, by ignoring import competition that is often predatory, and by actually encouraging the "offshoring" of whole industries and their supply chains. And too few domestic business leaders have had the time or resources to play the increasingly vital Washington game." We would say to our friends and associates in industry and government that believe we are NOT in an economic war, merely a shifting of competitive positions, your stance is not sustainable, justified or verifiable. This analysis brings that point painfully home...
Aviation Milestone: Boeing 777-200LR Sets New World Distance Record; Hong Kong to London
eMOTION! REPORTS.com Names Lincoln Zephyr/MKZ 2006 Car of The Year
Boeing C-17 Globemaster III
Image: Boeing
Aerospace Journalist OF THE YEAR Awards TO accept entries in four languages Announcing the change, World Leadership Forum President Malcolm Turner said: “In the past we only accepted entries published in English. Submissions published in other languages needed translations, and that deterred many non-English publications from entering. From 2006 we will accept entries in four major European languages, meaning that many more publications and journalists can now enter.” The international Aerospace Journalist of the Year Awards, organized in conjunction with the Royal Aeronautical Society, are the world's most important awards for aviation writers and broadcasters. eMOTION! REPORTS.com Publisher Myron D. Stokes is pleased that the ER team has been invited to participate. "We join the World Leadership Forum in encouraging aerospace journalists from around the world to submit entries to this prestigious competition. There is a large body of work analyzing the affairs and inner workings of one of the two largest industries on the planet, and one that has been the primary driver in technological advancement. From the Montegolfier Brothers to the Return to The Moon initiative, there is a rich history and an exciting future involving the human quest to conquer air and space." Go to full advisory PDF
Media Advisory December 5, 2005 It
has been observed by our global sources that several Japanese firms are
quietly removing their high value assets in China both technological and
human. This is occurring because of Japan's
dissatisfaction with the Chinese government's unwillingness to enforce the
law and effectively manage Chinese Triad activity. This
all but clandestine operation, now in its final stages and apparently
coordinated with Japanese intelligence services, placed a priority on the
most valuable facilities, the technological and manufacturability
components of those facilities, and has been accomplished with a precision
rivaling the disabling of Norway-based German heavy water operations at
Rjukan supporting nuclear weapons development in February 1943.
The latter having been accomplished with no loss of life on either side. This
comes on the heels of a public domain report provided by the US State
Department in response to a China business climate request by
Industry Canada in 2004. The report can be read in its entirety
at http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/inimr-ri.nsf/en/gr124519e.html.
But the report, sourced by the Japanese government, paints a grim picture
of a steadfastly non-cooperative China state of affairs, and qualifies as
a PRA (Political Risk Assessment).
The
eMOTION!
REPORT:
THE
AMERICAN AUTOMOTIVE/AEROSPACE INDUSTRY 2005 A
comprehensive analysis written by our global team of experts (see analyses
“Renault/Ford?” 5.9.05 and “Super-Globalism” 6.9.03) in the
academic, media, corporate and government sectors, with a focus on General
Motors and Ford Motor Company “business of the business” and product
analysis. On the aerospace side, we look at, among others, Boeing’s
emergent commercial aviation success story: The 787 Dreamliner along with
Bombardier’s new C-Series that may have a profound effect on the
company’s bottom-line profitability. 300 pages in length and
presented in ADOBE ™.pdf optimized for spiral-bound printing at KINKOS
™ locations globally, The eMOTION! REPORT offers 25 pages of full-page
only advertising avails. Closing date is November 30th with
publication scheduled for second week December. A
media/marketing kit is available as a download from this site to agencies
of record and other industry marketing personnel by requesting
password via
emotionmag@emotionreports.com.
Analysis: Boeing Board Selects W. James McNerney, Jr., as Chairman/CEO; Former Acting CEO James A. Bell Remains as CFO (6.30.05)
In a recent analysis concerning the forced departure of former CEO Harry Stonecipher, we noted that "It is virtually incontestable that every Boeing misstep and charge lain against it moves AIRBUS ever closer to its goal of capturing the lucrative, and hotly contested, AF tanker deal. Moreover, It tends to create an atmosphere of mistrust and loss of confidence on the part of military and commercial customers in terms of the company’s ability to perform.
It is not known at this point to whom the nod will be given among the very short list of executives to assume the mantle of CEO. However, it is crucial that the board not bow to pressure to assign the duties of running Boeing to an industry outsider with financial experience, but no knowledge of building airplanes. General Motors learned an awful lesson that car companies must be run by car guys who know the product and its creative process; intimately. Boeing is poised to do well – very well, we believe – with the roll out of the farthest ranging (9,420 nautical miles) aircraft in the world, the 777-200LR Worldliner, along with a hangar-mate already on its way to reshaping how aircraft are produced, the 787 Dreamliner.
The right guidance at the helm, no doubt, will help ensure success."
It appears that the Boeing board has done precisely that in the selection of W. James McNerney as the company's new CEO. Acting CEO James Bell remains as CFO.
While riding a wave of success following the broad acceptance of the new 787 Dreamliner as the choice of major airlines globally -- the profoundly disappointing, and perhaps instigated, Canadian cancellation of multiple Boeing aircraft notwithstanding -- Boeing's bringing aboard a person like McNerney couldn't have been more perfect.
New vistas in aircraft manufacturing: Boeing's 787 Dreamliner Image: Boeing Politely side-stepping strong suggestions from Wall Street that Stonecipher's replacement should be an outsider not necessarily associated with the industry, but possessed of significant financial savvy, the aerospace giant (yes, that still applies) instead chose a candidate who brings holistic, systemic knowledge and experience of the aircraft business and its supplier base.
The 55 year-old McNerney's pedigree includes CEO of 3M and core positions at GE Aircraft Engines, GE Asia-Pacific and GE Capital. In other words, he not only knows how to build airplanes, but finance them too.
It appears that McNerney is as much of a "plane guy" as GM's Bob Lutz is a "car guy".
Indeed, there is room here to congratulate both companies for their recent sales successes. And although some may say that the battle for the hearts and minds and pocketbooks of consumers has not been totally won in the face of determined opposition (read, AIRBUS and Toyota) the ancient battle of Thermopylae comes to mind: Small engagement, but one that irrevocably altered the course of civilization...
Renault/Ford? Newly
appointed Renault President and CEO Carlos Ghosn With
Chairman Louis Schweitzer Image:
Renault It
has been brought to our attention that a Renault/Ford “venture”
(with DaimlerChrysler/Fiat-GM similarities sans constructive taking; the
acquisition of a firm for reasons other than those officially stated)
and a GM/Toyota conjoining could well be rapidly coming together.
In fact, we are advised that a Ford/Renault interaction is all
but “a fait accompli” in light of the US company’s circumstances.
GM/Toyota General Motors, however, is a whole different story. Negotiations are planned between Toyota top executive and GM’s C-level executives, expected to expand existing agreements in place over the past two decades. Review of analyses developed in 2000 by industry colleagues that sought to define such a relationship, painted an unflattering image. Billionaire
financier and corporate raider Kirk Kerkorian, however, has other plans
for the world’s largest automaker.
Should he prevail in his strong overtures to be the company’s
single largest shareholder, it’s a foregone conclusion he will push to
remove virtually all the executives currently in charge, anointing an epic
figurehead to buy time, select and redirect the next generation of top GM
leaders. Who?
“Kerkorian’s buddy Lee Iacocca could be an ideal white
knight… another US car company to save.
But, he is only a few years younger than Kerkorian.
Even if Kerkorian were willing to give Bob Lutz the reigns, after
bad blood from the DC merger, Lutz isn’t much younger.”
Our
sources indicate the list of potential heroes with enough skill and
public capital to take heat off GM is thin.
“Jack Welch is about the only guy with weight and leverage to
do what Iacocca did for Chrysler.”
Go
To Full Advisory (pdf)
Boeing: The Stonecipher Departure
Publisher's
note 3.9.05:
"Economic war is always
waged first" is a maxim of Sun Tzu's eons old military doctrine.
Boeing, it seems, is feeling the full effects of such a war waged against
it as still the world's pre-eminent builder of military and commercial
aircraft. And it goes without saying that if you want to shake a
company – or a government – to its very core, attack, discredit,
neutralize and eliminate the executive leadership. As a result of
the world’s oldest executive indiscretion, Boeing has lost yet another
helmsman, Harry Stonecipher, who, as we stated in an earlier analysis
“Aerospace Giant in Fight of Its Life” was capable of leading a charge
of revitalized design, engineering and marketing talent from within
Boeing’s ranks against an EU-supported AIRBUS. A consortium, mind
you, whose mission in life is to unseat the company’s dominance in the
aerospace arena.
Global Powertrain Congress (GPC): A Convergence of The World's Best and Brightest in Advanced Propulsion Systems, With special emphasis on HEV's, Fuel Cells and Other Alternative Transportation Technologies Inclusive of Quasiturbine; September 28-30, Ford Conference Center, Dearborn, Michigan Publisher's note: As Dearborn, Michigan, home to industry foundation automaker Ford Motor Company, prepares to host this seventh annual vehicle powertrain specific conference, there is much talk, indeed, high expectations, of potential breakthrough technology, processes and powertrain systems strategies being presented here. Such expectations are concomitant with the angst associated with continued Middle-Eastern instability, Russian provincial upheaval and oil prices -- inextricably linked to these and bolstered by OPEC whim -- headed for $60 a barrel. For these reasons alone GPC is timely, and born of an industry landscape undergoing massive change. Dr. Nasim Uddim, one of GPC's founding directors, notes that those in attendance should not underestimate the importance of this conference as it emerges as a clear compliment to the annual events of SAE and SME: "This is a unique international annual conference which is now in its 7th year and is characterized by both its focus and its excellence. Those desirous of meeting the automotive Powertrain engineers and leaders who are determining the shape of the future, and hearing about the products and technologies that will define it, should know that GPC 2004 is the place to be." To that end, we're providing a pdf of the conference schedule and registration along with a direct link, www.gpc-icpem.org. We're also pleased to announce that elements of the white paper "Quantum Parallel: The Saint-Hilaire Quasiturbine as the Basis for a Simultaneous Paradigm Shift in Vehicle Propulsion Technology" will be presented here as well. We congratulate the GPC team on what is sure to be yet another successful program of high import and impact for industry. Elsewhere, we present a hi-res image of the Army's prototype TSV, or Theater Support Vessel, a weapons system -- it is indeed that -- at present redefining and expanding the role and capabilities of the Rapid Deployment Force, or any force, within the services. Developed and built by Bollinger/Incat of Australia, this wave-piercing catamaran design has a 40+ knot cruise speed fully loaded with 400 troops, tanks (up to 16 M1 Abrams) fast combat vehicles, helicopters, small watercraft for SEAL-type operations and provisions for sustained in-theater operations. It has already proved its worth in Iraq. More data is provided through a National Defense analysis written by our own Dr. Sheila Ronis, who had opportunity to spend time with this remarkable craft. TSV may very well prove to be exactly the type of high-technology, high flexibility and inter-service sea-borne support platform needed to take Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett's "two militaries", as outlined in "The Pentagon's New Map", from concept to fully functioning reality. The designers of Civil War Ironclads Monitor and Merrimac would have been proud... Carpe diem, Myron D.Stokes (8.29.04) Quasiturbine GPC 2004 Presentation Global Powertrain Congress (9/30/04)
Peer Review: Military Transformation Through Analytical Process: The Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society -- An Interdisciplinary Approach
Among the more notable were "Israeli-Palestinian Non-Mediated Peacekeeping --A Challenge to Hegemonic Masculinities" by Deborah Heifetz-Yahav of Tel Aviv University, and "How Peacekeeping Prepared the Army for War" by Laura Miller of RAND. A peer review of the proceedings in PDF form has been prepared for your ready reference and consideration. Elsewhere, we look at reviews of Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett's "The Pentagon's New Map", as well as providing a PDF file of the permanently archived work "Crisis On Asimov: A Vision of 2085", just in time for the opening of the Science Fiction Museum, which celebrates the genre past, present and future, in Seattle later this month. In the near future, we will present "Prelude To Stealth: Jack Northrop's P-61 Black Widow"; a close look at this purpose-built night fighter that shattered conventional thinking and theory as it related to airborne interception and aerodynamic control surfaces. As we prepare for this extensive analysis, we would appreciate hearing from former pilots and crew, and anyone involved in the design and building of this superlative craft. Reach us through: emotionmag@emotionreports.com To the promise of galactic adventure, Myron D. Stokes
Reviewing The Reviews:
On this 60th anniversary of "D-Day" the June 6, 1944 Operation Overlord invasion of Europe landings at Normandy, and considering the current state of affairs both economically and militarily, neither Barnett's nor Woodward's treatises will be gathering dust anytime soon... Encore: Crisis On Asimov - A Vision of 2085
The
Pentagon’s New Map is only pre-orderable for now at the following
web-site. It will be available after April 26, when it will be
published by G.P. Putnam’s Sons, New York. Find it on the web at: http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com eMOTION! REPORTS reviewer Dr. Sheila Ronis leaves no doubt as to where she stands on this book: "This work should be translated into every major language around the world, though the wit and wisdom may be difficult to translate. It is a must read, not only for policy analysts in the beltway and every American, but for every citizen of the world who cares about the future."
Special Report: Is NASCAR Killing the Golden Goose?
Industry Analysis: Lessons From Toyota: A Global Grand Strategy For Boeing
eMOTION! REPORTS.com Truck of The Decade: Ford F-150; Performance Car of 2005: Ford GT
Special Report: How Ferrari and Bridgestone Stole The 2003 Formula One World Championships
We should point out however, that although the estimated 600 billion dollar hydrogen infrastructural costs outlined in the Argonne studies at right may seem stratospheric, they are in line with traditional and accepted costs -- adjusted for inflation. In fact, over a 30 year period, along with implementing certain cost containment strategies outlined in these documents, the costs may become quite manageable... En français pour nos lecteurs du Canada et d'Europe Un parallèle
Quantique: La "Quasiturbine" des Saint-Hilaire
The
Boeing Archives
Aerospace
Giant in Fight for its Life (5.20.02) Rudman
Report on Boeing Ethics
(Released 12.18.03) Boeing was accused of improperly obtaining and using satellite contract bid information from rival Lockheed-Martin to gain the upper hand. As expected, the report praises the company for strenuous efforts to, in the words of CEO Harry Stonecipher, "Win the confidence of the customer back" -- in this case the U.S. Air Force. Make no mistake, however, this report is no whitewash. And besides, Boeing has bigger problems than suspect 767 tanker lease deals (a smart move regardless of how its structuring was handled) lost contracts and sanctioning by the DoD; there's the small problem of an animated, aggressive, EU-supported and relentless AIRBUS Industrie, and an agitated, relentless and outraged State Department. The latter having not forgotten the inadvertent provision of ICBM booster technology to the Chinese, who promptly used that knowledge to accelerate their manned space program by a couple of decades. But that's another story. No matter the outcome of any of the above difficulties, Boeing must, and will, survive. In the meantime, we're providing the full text of the Rudman internal ethics analysis as a pdf download. Aerospace Analysis In Queue; January 2004 7E7 Dreamliner: Boeing Chooses Mediocrity Over Greatness
Newly
appointed Boeing CEO Harry Stonecipher and
Commercial Airplanes President Alan Mulally announce
“available to order” status of 7E7 Dreamliner. Boeing image
Archives:
Boeing Going? (3/01)
In
early 2001, we took a long look at where Boeing was indeed going in
light of announcements at that time of the company's intent to
relocate its corporate HQ (Chicago was ultimately chosen). We
examined Chairman Phil Condit's possible motivations behind this all
but shocking move. We think these observations have particular
relevance nearly three years hence.
Condit
Addresses Detroit Economic Club
(11/01)
NOTABLE HAPPENINGS -- DOWNLOADS Few
industries have felt the impact of the September suicide attacks on the
United States as acutely as the aerospace sector. With the public far
from convinced of the safety of airline travel and the major carriers
devastated by plunging revenues, aerospace giant Boeing is feeling very
much in the center of the action. Analysis: Commercial C-17 Could Help Military Mobility (10.05.03)
Dr. Ronis also discusses the viability of the CAMAA (Commercial Application of Military Airlift Aircraft) program. Can Boeing Build The Sonic Cruiser?
The
question is not if, but when. There are rumblings that Boeing will
kill the program, and if true, it means that they have given in to the
naysayers -- uninformed bunch they are. And to yet again prove the
point, we are making available for download an extraordinary PDF from
the archives of the world's largest manufacturer of commercial and
military aircraft.
This
100 page document traces the technical history of Boeing's SST program
from 1962-'71. Basically, we're providing all our learned
colleagues need to build their own Mach 2.7 airliner...
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